October 24, 2004

Bush/Kerry Neck and Neck


John Kerry has drawn level, at last, with George Bush in the latest opinion polls - there are just 10 days to go before polling begins in earnest. The latest polls, with the usual 3% margin of error, put Kerry and Bush on around 49% of the vote each. The Kerry campaign does seem to have come alive now, it's a shame that Kerry wasn't able to shed his woodenness earlier. Worryingly, it seems that Bush has a slight lead in many of the swing states. As many as nine states are too close to call - with Florida likely to come down to just a few hundred votes yet again. In the end, the election will probably be decided by turnout. Can Kerry get enough of the black and Hispanic vote out in key states to swing the election his way? As happened in 2000, I'm not discounting a George Bush 'win' but with a lower share of the popular vote than Kerry.